While earthquakes sometimes kill people directly through mudslides and flooding, most earthquake deaths are actually caused by collapsing infrastructure; hence the oft-repeated statement, “Earthquakes don’t kill people, bad buildings do.” The earthquake body count, and the depth and breadth of hardship and economic disruption, depend on the level of earthquake preparedness. Up-to-date and well-enforced building codes, appropriate infrastructure, and well-equipped disaster response teams minimize the impact of earthquakes.
Yes, that’s huge, but you’re going to see the difference between a country that is prepared for earthquakes (Chile) and one that isn’t (Haiti).
I replied:
The central U.S. isn’t.
I’m wondering what will happen when stresses that have accumulated around the New Madrid fault zone erupt again, either directly on the fault itself or elsewhere in the central US.
The central US terrain transmits seismic forces a considerable distance, so that any major earthquake could cause widespread destruction. There are natural gas pipelines, densely populated areas, and busy transportation corridors, including the Mississippi River itself, close to the fault zone. Much of the infrastructure has not been earthquake-hardened.
The 1811-1812 earthquakes were fearsome, but caused comparatively little damage, owing to the sparse population and almost nonexistent infrastructure in the region at that time.
Say goodbye to Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. None built for quakes, whatever that really means.
New Madrid fault is the basis for the 2011 national disaster drill. As a planner, let me be the first to say: we’d all be f—-d. A “Katrina level” event, and then some.
The lessons of history
Indeed, Chile has made the effort to prepare itself for seismic activity following the catastrophic magnitude 9.5 Valdivia earthquake in 1960, which is the strongest earthquake yet recorded. The epicenter of the Valdivia quake was not far from that of the 2010 quake, which was just offshore of the Maule Region.
It’s human nature to look for excuses to ignore situations that are difficult to deal with. The Cleveland Plain Dealer article, New Madrid fault no problem, geophysicists Seth Stein and Eric Calais say, reports that these two scientists claim that the New Madrid fault is shutting down, so that it isn’t worth the expense to strengthen the infrastructure in the fault zone. But other scientists warn that Stein and Calais base their conclusion on too little evidence:
“Politicians don’t get re-elected spending lots of money on an event that may not happen in the next 50 years — until Katrina,” said geologist Gary Patterson of the University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information, known as CERI. “That absolutely changed the paradigm.”
The New Madrid situation is further complicated by the lack of scientific agreement on what the new findings mean.
“I’d hate to stick my own neck out and say there’s not going to be [another] earthquake” in the fault zone, said seismologist and CERI director Charles Langston. “That’s really a radical statement, based on a piece of data that has other interpretations.”
…
Other scientists aren’t convinced Stein and Calais are right about the New Madrid. Several note that GPS readings in China showed similarly slight intraplate movements before the devastating Sichuan quake last August, which killed 69,000.
Yes, worry!
A careful reading of that same article reveals that Stein and Calais never actually claimed that there is no earthquake risk, but rather, that the seismic action could occur in the nearby Wabash fault zone instead of on the New Madrid fault itself:
Assuming Stein and Calais are right, where might the New Madrid strain migrate? What fault system would be the next to switch on, and when? The researchers don’t know.
“One would think that the most likely place is to move up north into either southern Illinois or southern Indiana,” Stein said. He and Calais are working with other researchers on a computer model that may help show what’s going on.
As the above map suggests, that’s certainly close enough for discomfort to major populated areas and transportation corridors. I am not a seismologist, but I would suggest that the seismic risk warrants further investigation in both the New Madrid and Wabash fault regions.
So any way you slice it, there’s a significant seismic risk in the central US, and residents and business owners in those states need to think about how to cope with it.
Federal boondoggles bleed money and attention away from real priorities
Not long ago, the New Madrid fault enjoyed a brief flurry of attention in the media and the trade press. I remember seeing a very informative show, part of the Mega-Disasters series on The History Channel, about present-day seismic dangers in the New Madrid fault zone. But as of this writing, only a cursory mention of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake – and no mention of the Mega-Disasters episode – is on their website.
The July 2007 issue of TVPPA News, which describes itself as the magazine for electric system management in the Tennessee Valley, featured an article entitled “New Madrid: Is the Valley Quake-Ready?”
When Don Drumm and several of his TVA colleagues dealt with a New Madrid fault earthquake late last year, it was only a drill. The consequence of the real thing, he said, could be described with one word. “I wouldn’t call it catastrophic,” he said. “I’d call it cataclysmic.”
As far as I have been able to determine, earthquake preparedness in the New Madrid zone has departed from the public’s radar screen. Little or nothing is being said about it at present. One obvious reason is that the pre-Climategate campaign against “global warming,” the current economic depression, and the misnamed “economic stimulus” tax-and-spend program, have bled away both attention and available funds.
With all the deceptive fanfare about the “economic stimulus money” that was supposed to be spent on “shovel-ready infrastructure projects” throughout the US, I have heard absolutely no mention whatsoever of any plans to strengthen the buildings, highways, rail corridors, fuel pipelines, and other infrastructure in the vicinity of New Madrid. Taxpayers’ money is being squandered on all manner of ridiculous, irrelevant, and counterproductive causes and beneficiaries – everything from bailing out Wall Street arch-criminals to nonexistent “green jobs” to crippling what’s left of domestic industry by enacting draconian regulations against “global warming.” There was never any intention of allowing states and cities, much less private companies and organizations, to set their own priorities regarding how best to prepare for the future.
Crying wolf
As readers of my other blog already know, the recent “Climategate” scandal has eroded the credibility of the scientific community in general. The long and the short of it is that the “powers that be” in the scientific community have been caught “crying wolf” for several decades. So when scientists tell us to account for seismic risks in our plans to build or upgrade infrastructure in the central US, it’s no surprise that financially beleaguered cities, states, contractors, utility companies, and other corporations and organizations ignore their warnings and go on with “business as usual.”
The answer? State sovereignty and local privatization
We need to oust the federal government from control over our finances, our commerce (including, but not limited to, health care), and our disaster preparedness. At the VERY least, we need a Constitutional amendment to repeal the flagrantly abused “commerce clause.” I do not believe that this is enough. I see the need for dismantling the federal government once and for all, in much the same way as the former Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact was dissolved. The federal government has failed in all of the duties for which it was originally formed. Even the smallest of the individual States are big enough to take care of themselves. It’s time for a new “velvet divorce” – stateside version. The way to get there without bloodshed is by educating people, and that is what this blog aims to do.
Watch this space for more on this topic!
Dixie flag flies as a symbol of liberty as the Berlin Wall comes down
New U.S. TSA rules take effect New Year’s Day 2008
In a nutshell: You will no longer be able to pack spare batteries in checked baggage, but, within limits, you will be allowed to pack spare batteries in carry-on baggage. Most lithium batteries for consumer electronic devices such as laptops and video cameras will meet the restrictions. But large, professional-grade batteries may exceed the limits; if you have any doubts, call the manufacturer before you pack your devices for travel.
By Gary Krakow, TheStreet.com – 12/29/2007 10:34 AM EST
If you’re one of the millions of airline travelers who carry spare lithium laptop, cell phone and camera batteries with you, listen up: The government has some new rules which go into effect on New Year’s Day.
Fortunately, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is not worried about the batteries installed in your devices, be it an iPhone or laptop. Those are safe to bring along with you on the plane in your carry-on bag.
But the TSA is worried about loose, spare batteries. These are batteries with uncovered electrical contacts, which, if touched by other metal objects could cause an explosion and fire during a flight. So, the agency wants to make sure that any spare lithium batteries you take with you on your flight meet its new standards.
Effective January 1, 2008, the following rules apply to the spare lithium batteries you carry with you in case the battery in a device runs low:
Spare batteries are the batteries you carry separately from the devices they power. When batteries are installed in a device, they are not considered spare batteries.
You may not pack a spare lithium battery in your checked baggage
You may bring spare lithium batteries with you in carry-on baggage – see our spare battery tips and how-to sections to find out how to pack spare batteries safely!
Even though we recommend carrying your devices with you in carry-on baggage as well, if you must bring one in checked baggage, you may check it with the batteries installed.
The following quantity limits apply to both your spare and installed batteries. The limits are expressed in grams of “equivalent lithium content.” 8 grams of equivalent lithium content is approximately 100 watt-hours. 25 grams is approximately 300 watt-hours:
Under the new rules, you can bring batteries with up to 8-gram equivalent lithium content. All lithium ion batteries in cell phones are below 8 gram equivalent lithium content. Nearly all laptop computers also are below this quantity threshold.
You can also bring up to two spare batteries with an aggregate equivalent lithium content of up to 25 grams, in addition to any batteries that fall below the 8-gram threshold. Examples of two types of lithium ion batteries with equivalent lithium content over 8 grams but below 25 are shown below.
For a lithium metal battery, whether installed in a device or carried as a spare, the limit on lithium content is 2 grams of lithium metal per battery.
Almost all consumer-type lithium metal batteries are below 2 grams of lithium metal. But if you are unsure, contact the manufacturer!
This holiday season, America Supports You is giving you a new way to send your thanks to the troops – by text message! When you send your message of thanks to 89279 (TXASY) between November 17th and 22nd, you’ll receive a special thanks in return. Also, we’ll be displaying those messages on our ASY Thanks widget far and wide across the internet. Just another way that you can support our brave military men and women around the world…
Do you have a blog, MySpace page, or other website?
Visit the ASY site and get the code to install the widget on your site. The widget comes from an official US military site, free from malware. And it’s easy to do!
In the United States people are often surprised when they learn that a person who is not African American has sickle cell disease. The disease originated in at least 4 places in Africa and in the Indian/Saudi Arabian subcontinent. It exists in all countries of Africa and in areas where Africans have migrated. The transatlantic slave trade was largely responsible for introducing the sickle cell gene into the Americas and the Caribbean. However, sickle cell disease had already spread from Africa to Southern Europe by the time of the slave trade, so it is present in Portuguese, Spaniards, French Corsicans, Sardinians, Sicilians, mainland Italians, Greeks, Turks and Cypriots. Sickle cell disease appears in most of the Near and Middle East countries including Lebanon, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Yemen. Sickle-cell in the western part of Saudia is similar to the type that shows up in Africa however, the type of sickle-cell in Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia is called the “Indian” sickle-cell mutation and is thought to have been introduced from/to the sub-continent via ancient maritime trade routes hundreds of years ago.
Ironically, another study claims the reason sickle-cell has spread across so many diverse populations has everything to do with MALARIA. They propose that because people with sickle-cell are protected from malaria, they lived longer than their sickle-cell-free brethren in areas with high incidences of malaria enabling them to reproduce more thus, passing on their malaria-free though, sickle-cell tainted blood to their children. Judging by pictures like this of old Al-Hassa and how my house is filled with mosquitoes every winter during the “wet” season, I can go along with this theory as I imagine malaria used to be a big problem here.
Recently, the folks at Global Incident Map posted a notice, USA Airport Security Alert for Toys with Remotes. In a nutshell, although radio-controlled toys are not prohibited on aircraft at this time, passengers carrying such toys will be subject to additional screening:
Citing ‘credible specific information’ about terror tactics, Transportation Security Administration officers nationwide on Monday stepped up their scrutiny of passengers carrying remote-control toys aboard airplanes…
Do you enjoy RC toys? Here’s what you need to know to stay safe!
Radio-controlled toys should be good, safe fun for both children and adults. While it is disgusting enough that anybody would set off bombs as an act of terrorism, it is truly sick to put a bomb into a toy.
According to the article in The Coloradoan,an innocent person’s remote controller could accidentally trigger a remote bomb planted by a terrorist.
Remote controls on toys and items such as garage-door openers transmit radio waves and can be converted to crude detonators, though sophisticated terrorists shun them, said aviation security consultant Rich Roth, a former Secret Service agent. Such a bomb could be detonated prematurely, thus defeating a terrorist’s plans, he said.
“The problem has always been that there are so many kids with toys out there that if some kid fires up a toy and sets off a (terrorist) bomb, that’s not good,” Roth said.
So here are the take-home lessons for EVERYONE:
Do not turn on the remote controller for any of your own radio-controlled toys in a public place. This is especially important in and around airports, train stations, buses, and other transportation facilities. You don’t want to affect anything else that might be using the same frequency.
If you notice anything that looks like a radio-controlled toy left unattended outdoors or in a public place – use caution. Radio-controlled toys are fairly expensive and people normally don’t abandon them. Ask around to see if anybody knows whose it is and how it got there. If there isn’t a good reason for it being there, consider it a suspicious object and call the local authorities to check it out. Don’t just absent-mindedly touch it or push it aside. Take care not to step on it or run over it with your vehicle!
If you see something, say something! Keep your eyes open for any type of terrorist-training or jihadist-recruitment videos when you’re exploring YouTube or other Internet video hosting services. Notify the video hosting service and the appropriate authorities. See the Reference Material resource page on 1389 Blog for specific information about where to report suspicious activities.
