While earthquakes sometimes kill people directly through mudslides and flooding, most earthquake deaths are actually caused by collapsing infrastructure; hence the oft-repeated statement, “Earthquakes don’t kill people, bad buildings do.” The earthquake body count, and the depth and breadth of hardship and economic disruption, depend on the level of earthquake preparedness. Up-to-date and well-enforced building codes, appropriate infrastructure, and well-equipped disaster response teams minimize the impact of earthquakes.
Yes, that’s huge, but you’re going to see the difference between a country that is prepared for earthquakes (Chile) and one that isn’t (Haiti).
I replied:
The central U.S. isn’t.
I’m wondering what will happen when stresses that have accumulated around the New Madrid fault zone erupt again, either directly on the fault itself or elsewhere in the central US.
The central US terrain transmits seismic forces a considerable distance, so that any major earthquake could cause widespread destruction. There are natural gas pipelines, densely populated areas, and busy transportation corridors, including the Mississippi River itself, close to the fault zone. Much of the infrastructure has not been earthquake-hardened.
The 1811-1812 earthquakes were fearsome, but caused comparatively little damage, owing to the sparse population and almost nonexistent infrastructure in the region at that time.
Say goodbye to Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. None built for quakes, whatever that really means.
New Madrid fault is the basis for the 2011 national disaster drill. As a planner, let me be the first to say: we’d all be f—-d. A “Katrina level” event, and then some.
The lessons of history
Indeed, Chile has made the effort to prepare itself for seismic activity following the catastrophic magnitude 9.5 Valdivia earthquake in 1960, which is the strongest earthquake yet recorded. The epicenter of the Valdivia quake was not far from that of the 2010 quake, which was just offshore of the Maule Region.
It’s human nature to look for excuses to ignore situations that are difficult to deal with. The Cleveland Plain Dealer article, New Madrid fault no problem, geophysicists Seth Stein and Eric Calais say, reports that these two scientists claim that the New Madrid fault is shutting down, so that it isn’t worth the expense to strengthen the infrastructure in the fault zone. But other scientists warn that Stein and Calais base their conclusion on too little evidence:
“Politicians don’t get re-elected spending lots of money on an event that may not happen in the next 50 years — until Katrina,” said geologist Gary Patterson of the University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information, known as CERI. “That absolutely changed the paradigm.”
The New Madrid situation is further complicated by the lack of scientific agreement on what the new findings mean.
“I’d hate to stick my own neck out and say there’s not going to be [another] earthquake” in the fault zone, said seismologist and CERI director Charles Langston. “That’s really a radical statement, based on a piece of data that has other interpretations.”
…
Other scientists aren’t convinced Stein and Calais are right about the New Madrid. Several note that GPS readings in China showed similarly slight intraplate movements before the devastating Sichuan quake last August, which killed 69,000.
Yes, worry!
A careful reading of that same article reveals that Stein and Calais never actually claimed that there is no earthquake risk, but rather, that the seismic action could occur in the nearby Wabash fault zone instead of on the New Madrid fault itself:
Assuming Stein and Calais are right, where might the New Madrid strain migrate? What fault system would be the next to switch on, and when? The researchers don’t know.
“One would think that the most likely place is to move up north into either southern Illinois or southern Indiana,” Stein said. He and Calais are working with other researchers on a computer model that may help show what’s going on.
As the above map suggests, that’s certainly close enough for discomfort to major populated areas and transportation corridors. I am not a seismologist, but I would suggest that the seismic risk warrants further investigation in both the New Madrid and Wabash fault regions.
So any way you slice it, there’s a significant seismic risk in the central US, and residents and business owners in those states need to think about how to cope with it.
Federal boondoggles bleed money and attention away from real priorities
Not long ago, the New Madrid fault enjoyed a brief flurry of attention in the media and the trade press. I remember seeing a very informative show, part of the Mega-Disasters series on The History Channel, about present-day seismic dangers in the New Madrid fault zone. But as of this writing, only a cursory mention of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake - and no mention of the Mega-Disasters episode - is on their website.
The July 2007 issue of TVPPA News, which describes itself as the magazine for electric system management in the Tennessee Valley, featured an article entitled “New Madrid: Is the Valley Quake-Ready?”
When Don Drumm and several of his TVA colleagues dealt with a New Madrid fault earthquake late last year, it was only a drill. The consequence of the real thing, he said, could be described with one word. “I wouldn’t call it catastrophic,” he said. “I’d call it cataclysmic.”
As far as I have been able to determine, earthquake preparedness in the New Madrid zone has departed from the public’s radar screen. Little or nothing is being said about it at present. One obvious reason is that the pre-Climategate campaign against “global warming,” the current economic depression, and the misnamed “economic stimulus” tax-and-spend program, have bled away both attention and available funds.
With all the deceptive fanfare about the “economic stimulus money” that was supposed to be spent on “shovel-ready infrastructure projects” throughout the US, I have heard absolutely no mention whatsoever of any plans to strengthen the buildings, highways, rail corridors, fuel pipelines, and other infrastructure in the vicinity of New Madrid. Taxpayers’ money is being squandered on all manner of ridiculous, irrelevant, and counterproductive causes and beneficiaries - everything from bailing out Wall Street arch-criminals to nonexistent “green jobs” to crippling what’s left of domestic industry by enacting draconian regulations against “global warming.” There was never any intention of allowing states and cities, much less private companies and organizations, to set their own priorities regarding how best to prepare for the future.
Crying wolf
As readers of my other blog already know, the recent “Climategate” scandal has eroded the credibility of the scientific community in general. The long and the short of it is that the “powers that be” in the scientific community have been caught “crying wolf” for several decades. So when scientists tell us to account for seismic risks in our plans to build or upgrade infrastructure in the central US, it’s no surprise that financially beleaguered cities, states, contractors, utility companies, and other corporations and organizations ignore their warnings and go on with “business as usual.”
The answer? State sovereignty and local privatization
We need to oust the federal government from control over our finances, our commerce (including, but not limited to, health care), and our disaster preparedness. At the VERY least, we need a Constitutional amendment to repeal the flagrantly abused “commerce clause.” I do not believe that this is enough. I see the need for dismantling the federal government once and for all, in much the same way as the former Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact was dissolved. The federal government has failed in all of the duties for which it was originally formed. Even the smallest of the individual States are big enough to take care of themselves. It’s time for a new “velvet divorce” - stateside version. The way to get there without bloodshed is by educating people, and that is what this blog aims to do.
Watch this space for more on this topic!
Dixie flag flies as a symbol of liberty as the Berlin Wall comes down
Whenever anything like this happens, the same kinds of articles tend to appear in the media and on blogs. There are the articles that, often with a self-righteous tone, wax eloquent about the horrific nature of the act, the despicable character of the attacker, and (often) the pristine innocence of the victims. Given that the victims in this event were IRS employees, little has been said about them in the media.
Then there are those other articles that sympathize with the attacker’s motives, ideology, or political stance, but condemn the attacker’s use of violence. Here again, I haven’t seen much of that this time around. Joseph Stack’s manifesto encompassed such a mixed bag of grievances, accusations, and quotations that it is impossible to tell where in the political spectrum he was coming from. I suspect that he himself had no clear idea.
Finally, there are articles calling out for more and more government legislation, regulation, or law enforcement to prevent any similar incidents from occuring in the future. In this instance, there were acknowledgements that it is all but impossible to prevent this type of suicide attack, but no amount of reasoning or common sense ever seems to stop the flood of demands for draconian repressive measures.
The “Powers That Be” Knew Something Like This Was Bound To Happen
No matter where you live in the world, you know that the worldwide economy has been bad for over two years, and there is no improvement in sight. The rot started in the US, largely due to actions on the part of the US government and various corrupt oligarchs, such as George Soros. The collapse and supposed “bailout” were engineered by various corrupt politicians and financiers to take money out of our pockets and put it into their own. Everything done by the US Congress and the Obama administration has served only to deepen the depression. From here, the economic rot has spread worldwide; two notable examples are Iceland and Greece.
Then there’s the issue of the U.S. economy having been hollowed out by outsourcing, offshoring, and the H-1b visa program. This has had a particularly devastating effect on the American middle class in general, and the American IT worker in particular.
Even with the real unemployment rate in many areas of the US matching or exceeding that of the 1930s Great Depression, it is truly scandalous that the H-1b program remains in effect. This insures that any effort on the part of American IT workers to get jobs, or to retrain themselves for future jobs in the industry, are doomed to come to naught.
The H-1b program never had anything to do with aiding the competitiveness of US firms in global markets; that ship sailed away years ago. Instead, the H-1b program is simply a testimony to the power of multinational technology megabusinesses to deceive, corrupt, and intimidate US elected officials. (Please see IT Business Edge: AFL-CIO Report Takes Critical Look at H-1B Visa Program for more on this issue.)
How is this relevant to the story? The attacker, Joseph Stack, was an unemployed IT worker who was also bedeviled by a long battle with the IRS and, apparently, ensuing difficulties with his home life. I would like to point out that the overwhelming majority of people faced with such situations never “go postal” or resort to any form of violence. But the US government has enough statistics and historical data at its disposal to know that, whenever a large group of people is pushed too far into desperation, a tiny percentage of them will go over the edge.
Let me make it clear that I am NOT claiming that anybody connected with the US government knew ahead of time that this particular individual, Joseph Stack, would do what he did. I said no such thing, nor did I mean to imply it. But I do intend to say that the US government knew that it was only a matter of time before someone whose life had been destroyed by government policies would commit a high-profile violent act.
The “Powers That Be” Could Have Prevented It Without Repressive Measures
The US Congress and the Obama administration could cut unemployment significantly just by eliminating the H-1b program, but they do not. Part of the reason why H-1b remains in effect is simply because the Obama administration not only is thoroughly corrupt, but also is engaged in a covert war to disempower, plunder, and eventually eliminate most of the US middle class. In other words, the Obama administration is not going to do anything to help out a segment of the population that does not provide the Democrat party with significant political or financial support.
But that’s not the only reason. Whenever anyone who is not part of the administration’s political support base reacts to oppression by becoming violent, this violent act provides those in power with a convenient excuse both to discredit their political opponents and to increase government control by cracking down on everybody by any means available.
If Violence Is Not The Answer, What Is?
Supposed “democratic election” or no, recent polls in the US have made it clear that neither the Obama administration nor the US Congress enjoy the consent of the governed, in any sense of the word. The US economy remains in free fall with no recovery in sight, and with the levels of debt and irresponsible spending being what they are, little possibility of recovery in the lifetime of anybody old enough to read this blog. Glenn Beck proclaimed that we don’t need a revolution; we’ve already had one. He is correct that we don’t need a “revolution” in that sense, but incorrect that we have already had one. The American Revolution in 1776 was not really a revolution in the usual sense, but a war of secession. What we need now is not revolution, but secession, and not just one secession, but perhaps fifty of them. And if enough people understand what they want, secession need not involve bloodshed.
Keep watching this blog for more about secession.
Here we go again, this time with the “Pentagon Shooter”
For all your supposed interest in getting rid of onerous censorship, there seems to be some of it taking place on BoingBoing itself.
I created an account for the purpose of posting a comment on the BoingBoing article having to do with what was purportedly a kid’s lingerie line being sold by Noah Cyrus (but was actually no such thing). I roundly criticized BoingBoing for having run what I deemed to be a hysterically-worded and error-riddled article in the first place. I used NO vulgar language, NO bigoted comments, NO threats, NO libelous accusations, nothing that should have gotten me banned from your site.
My comment was posted for maybe half an hour or so. Then the comment vanished. I saw a notice that my logon had expired, so I tried to log on again to see what had happened. I simply got a message saying “Permission denied.” Then I went to check my email. There was NO notification that my comment had been taken down or that I had been banned from BoingBoing. But apparently that is what happened.
It seems awfully hypocritical that someone at BoingBoing is banning people, WITHOUT notice or explanation, simply for criticizing BoingBoing itself.
It looks as though I need to go back to blogging about censorship issues, as tired of that topic as I am by now, simply because sites such as BoingBoing are failing to do their job. Obviously, just because a site CLAIMS to be in favor of free expression of ideas, does not mean that it actually IS. And in my experience, no site that employs, or is run by, persons of a left-wing bent, ever truly goes to bat for free expression for anybody who DISAGREES with material on the site itself. In other words…it’s always free speech for me, but not for thee!
For obvious reasons, I see no reason to identify myself to you any further. If you don’t trust me to comment on your site, why should I trust you with my personal information?
1389AD
“Hey, it’s their site, and they can do what they want!”
That’s true.
It’s also completely irrelevant.
“Why?”
Here’s why:
If BoingBoing and Mark Frauenfelder want to posture as defenders of free expression on the Internet and everywhere else, that’s their privilege.
If BoingBoing and Mark Frauenfelder want to ban me for making a comment that criticizes them for having run a deeply flawed article on their own website, that’s also their privilege.
But if they choose to do both at once, they’re going to look like a bunch of fools, and it’s MY privilege to point that out!
Oh, and by the way, whether you agree with me or not, you can contact Mark Frauenfelder at mark@boingboing.net and let him know what you think!
Not that which goeth into the mouth defileth a man; but that which cometh out of the mouth, this defileth a man.
Matthew 15:11 KJV
Dark art
As those who follow me on deviantART may have noticed, I seldom upload dark art, but there are times when I feel the need to communicate something about the dark side of life.
This is one of those times.
Perhaps it is because of the commercialization of Valentine’s Day and the desperation that some people feel as a result of past and present romantic deception. Perhaps it is merely because of my ongoing frustration at the nonsense that seems to pervade so much of the media.
Or perhaps it is because I saw the movie “Sophie’s Choice” last night before going to sleep.
The machinery of evil
There is a reason why lying is deemed to be a sin, a violation of one of the Ten Commandments. Lying is the lubricant that keeps the machinery of evil in motion, and the lubricant that allows it to start. How far would evildoers get without the opportunity to lie to themselves and to others?
A relationship in which one or both parties is a liar, is no relationship at all. If someone lies to you, how much do you really know about that person, other than the fact that they have lied to you?
But there’s more.
As Homer Simpson said, “It takes two people to lie. One to lie, and one to believe.”
After the fashion of Yogi Berra or Casey Stengel, Homer Simpson conveys a truth, seen from an unusual angle. If the rest of us would be less gullible, if we would stop being so ready to believe gossip, slander, propaganda, and politically correct cant, then the liars who bedevil this world would get far less traction.
One can only hope.
Tech notes:
To see a full-size rendition of the above image, please click on the image once to get to the gallery page on deviantART, and then click on the thumbnail again.
Thanks to cavia for suggestions made on my previous attempt on this theme, Pierced Lips.
After years of contempt for the blogosphere, it seems the old media has recently decided they’d like in on the action, at least in reporting the 2008 elections. Mashable has reported on cooperative efforts between YouTube and CNN, Facebook and ABC, Fox and MySpace, and now Digg and CBS.
ZDNet is reporting, “Google and Matsushita’s Panasonic unit are jointly developing televisions that display Internet content such as photos and videos.”
Nearly all of the TV and print media have had websites on the internet for some time, perhaps they are finally beginning to realize what we, social networkers, have known for a long time: The value of of readers’ input and interaction: PRICELE$$.
Ryan Randazzo and Allison Denny The Arizona Republic Nov. 3, 2007 12:00 AM
Sheriff’s detectives continue to investigate how a pipe bomb got into a contract worker’s pickup bed Friday, triggering a lockdown of Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station and trapping thousands of employees there for about seven hours.
Roger W. Hurd, 61, of Hartsville, S.C., said he was unaware of a pipe bomb in his maroon Ford when he was stopped by Arizona Public Service Co. security officials at the entrance of the nation’s top-producing nuclear plant, sheriff’s officials said.
APS security did not find more explosives after an extensive search of the plant and its grounds, located about 50 miles west of downtown Phoenix, eventually lifting the lockdown at about 3 p.m., the utility said.
. . .
Maricopa County sheriff’s deputies found nothing connecting Hurd to the incident after a search of his Goodyear apartment, Arpaio said.
“We feel the person driving the truck, according to him and the investigation so far, didn’t have anything to do with it,” Arpaio said.
Hurd was not arrested but was held for questioning at the checkpoint before leading investigators to his apartment. Arpaio said he did not expect Hurd to face charges.
It does not appear Hurd is a terrorist, said Capt. Paul Chagolla, a sheriff’s spokesman.
“No nexus with terrorism is in our investigation at this point,” Chagolla said.
The upshot:
The contractor who drove the vehicle is not considered to be a suspect. The security worked well enough to keep the vehicle with the pipe bomb from approaching the nuke plant. But this shows how easy it is to plant an IED or other contraband in or on someone’s vehicle, either to discredit the owner of the vehicle, to boobytrap the vehicle, or to cause other harm that will be blamed on innocent parties.
In the interests of accuracy…
One of my pet peeves is the delivery of an announcement ruling out terrorism, even before investigators have any clue about the incident.
In this case, it would have been more accurate for the spokespeople to have acknowledged that Hurd is not a suspect, that they don’t have a suspect yet, and that it is too soon to rule in or out terrorism on the part of anyone else.
Why do news stories about security incidents tell us so little?
Why are suspects’ names and backgrounds so often omitted from the news when the incident involves national security? What is being kept from us?
Typical reasons:
No real suspect has yet been identified: Something dangerous was found, but it’s too soon to say how it got there, or why. This appears to have been the case in this incident.
Downplaying faulty or inadequate security procedures: There are doubts as to whether security procedures were properly designed and enforced, and nobody wants to look bad in the news.
Political correctness: News media and the authorities typically keep identifying information away from the public whenever a suspect is from a predominantly Muslim country, or has a Muslim name–or when there is some evidence of terrorist ties or motives. It’s politically incorrect to talk about such things! As in the case with the Virginia Tech mass murderer, someone can be motivated at least in part by an interest in Islam or jihadism even if he or she is from a part of the world where few people have such associations.
Don’t let the public start asking about personnel policy…
Does the facility hire foreign workers under the H-1b visa program? This could explain an across-the-board policy decision to delay or avoid answering any questions about security incidents. In this day of mandatory “diversity” at all costs, the powers that be wouldn’t want taxpayers and voters to wonder about the obvious security risks inherent in allowing noncitizens to work in IT and engineering jobs at all, much less in a nuclear plant, of all places!
What about background checks?
For a US citizen, an employer can complete an ordinary pre-employment background check in less than a day. That’s fine for a person working as a cashier in a retail store, but that wouldn’t do for a nuke plant worker! A more thorough background investigation, such as that required for a security clearance, can take many months. The only reason that such an investigation can be completed at all is because, for a US citizen, information is available for verification from trusted sources in the US.
There is simply no way to verify such background information with regard to a foreigner with the same degree of completeness, promptness, and accuracy. Given the fact that we are at war, how can anybody possibly think that it is worth the risk to hire foreigners for jobs that allow any kind of access to American IT or engineering infrastructure?
For more government and media obfuscation and foot-dragging, see:
Will net neutrality keep the largest ISPs from restricting the way we use the Internet? Michael S. Malone thinks so. He says: “That does it: I am now a full-fledged convert to net neutrality.” Read the article and decide for yourself.
On the evening of October 25, I attended the protest of Islamo-fascism Awareness Week at the University of Washington. Here is my conversation with Zakariya Dehlawi, President of the UW Muslim Student Association. He insists that even though Islamic terrorists frequently invoke their religion before detonating themselves, we shouldn’t ever mention the word “Islam” when we’re talking about those attacks. The conversation is interupted by an angry Muslim man, who you’ll hear from next.
Here is the rest of my conversation with the Muslim man who clearly wanted to talk, but didn’t want to answer questions. Note that he says “you didn’t catch Osama Bin Laden.” He, along with the next member of the UW MSA, doesn’t appear to identify with the country in which this protest is taking place. This leads to the obvious question: which side are these guys on, anyway? The following clips includes both men, both of whom seem to justify the 9/11 attacks because of the American foreign policy.
The University of Delaware folds like a lawn chair!
Yesterday, the University of Delaware asked Asaf Romirowsky to step down from an academic panel at the University of Delaware because another panelist, University of Delaware political scientist Muqtedar Khan, didn’t want to share the podium with anyone who served in the Israeli Defense Forces.
And how dare the Pentagon get its advice from such a bigot?
If Khan was just an academic, that would be one thing. But he also straddles the policy world: Khan is a a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a Pentagon consultant. According to an e-mail he sent to the University, he gave a workshop at the Pentagon yesterday afternoon.
